Is the general election coming soon?

First of all, we must ask ourselves, why Barisan National want to dissolve parlimen and announce general election?

This is because they want to have 2/3 majority in parliamen and continue to rule the country.

Now the questions are, are they ready to get back the 2/3 seats in parliamen? Do rakyat support them back already? How sure is PM to get back the 2/3 seats?

Is PM confidence now to win back Selangor and Pulau Pinang? Or win back Kelatan from PAS (this is unlikely possible)

There are also some important seats from Perak, Melacca, Kedah and so on~ It is all depends from the "feel" of PM. If he is still "feel" uncomfortable" to win back those seats from above mentioned state. Then I think we hardly to see the general election in this year.

What are you "feel" now?

Malaysia's Logistic Industry future prospect

The Star newspaper yesterday published Malaysia’s logistics industry is expected to grow by 11.5% to RM121bil this year from RM108.5bil in 2010, supported by the country’s strong external trade and stable economic outlook.


http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2011/1/26/business/7870387&sec=business


If Malaysia is transformed successfully, this definitely will boost up Malaysia's industry logistic especially sub-sectors like import-export forwarding, shipping and airfreight-related businesses.

Then the listed companies like Freight Management, Century Logistic, Tasco, Konsortium, Harbour-Link and Integrated Logistic Bhd definitely will benefit from this wave. As we can see from their recent quarter report, most of them are started to make more money.

You may refer to my previous article about the comments on those listed companies by searching through the "Labels" on the right hand side.

*Blogger own some of the shares mentioned above.

CI Holding 2828

CI Holding, subsidiary company, Permanis is extending their partner contract with Marrybrown 5 years more until year 2015.

The original contract is signed at year 2006. With the distribution license with pepsi, Permanis is expected to contribute a healthy cash flow to CI Holding.

Current share price of CI Holding is RM 3.52
Latest quarter EPS was 8.92 cents, so it transform to PE 10.59

The price is not cheap, also not expensive. I believe there are some room for it to grow again as future earning should be getting better and improve.

*Blogger doesn't own any shares on the stock mentioned above.

MahSing Group

Year         Revenue       Net Profit
2005         473,491         48,346
2006         495,625         65,691
2007         573,365         81,126
2008         651,639         93,168
2009         701,562         94,282

Above figure all are in thousand

As we can see, Mahsing revenue and earning was consistent and growing even during financial crisis year 2009. This is a bit surprise because not much of the developer can achieve this result.

From its financial statement, the land & property value remain at low value, but however revenue is still able to grow. What make this happen? There are two possibilities, it is either Mahsing do not update their landbank value or the turnover of its landbank is fast.

What it means of turnover landbank is fast? It means that from the time it buy on the land, then it makes a very fast move into developing the land and sell the properties to other people in a very fast rate. So this make its landbank value always maintain at low value and with a growth in revenue.

According to Mahsing CEO, there are 33 projects are running currently, which 5 projects are completed, 18 projects are in progress, and 10 projects are in planning. Normally, Mahsing will start to develop an acquired landbank in the time of 3 months to 9 months after the time purchased.

Recent actions from Century Logistic

Despite the share buy back activities running up by Century Logistic. Here is another move by Century Logistic on 21st Jan 2011 fully repaid a term loan facility amounting to RM20 million.

This bring the total borrowings of Century Logistic to around RM 60 million. With the healthy cash flow, plus good cash management by Century Logistic, this will result substantial interest saving by the company. We can foresee a better cash flow and earning from it in the coming quarter result as the company is running share buy back activities and reduce the company's debt.

Note: There is total 3.5 million retained shares in the company treasury share account from total 81.7 million issued shares.

Malaysia stocks is more expensive than US stocks

 It is true~ let me give you some example..

General Electric,    latest quarter EPS USD 0.36,  stock price USD 19.74, which equal to PE 13.7
Citigroup,          estimate quarter EPS USD 0.15,  stock price USD 4.87,   which equal to PE 8.11
Bank of America,  latest quarter EPS USD 0.27,  stock price USD 14.25,  which equal to PE 13.19

CIMB,                latest quarter EPS RM 0.1273, stock price RM 8.34,      which equal to PE 16.38
Maybank,            latest quarter EPS RM 0.1453, stock price RM 8.81,      which equal to PE 15.16
SIME,                 latest quarter EPS RM 0.1089, stock price RM 9.31,      which equal to PE 21.37

So which is more expensive now? we should buy low sell high? or buy high sell higher?
I do not think Malaysia stocks are worth more than US stocks. If it is not because US mortgage subprime crisis, I do not think those US stock can be sold at these cheap price.

Malaysia no matter how cannot be the leader of the world, so I do not see any point Malaysia's stocks can be more expensive than US stocks. If want to play safe, put some of your bullet in US stocks.

wow~ stocks maga sales!

KLCI index has dropped continuously two days. When will it stop? As I predict early in my early post: http://hongwei85.blogspot.com/2011/01/disposed-alam-rm-116.html
Market is going to correction soon.

But however I do not think index will be pulled back very strong, I am still bullish on the first half year, as general election is coming REAL REAL SOON and market is full of new launching projects. The rally should be continue.

TENAGA should be safe bet due to the raising of electrical bill after general election. However when is the general election and when will TENAGA raise up the charges, then this one I am not sure. But however, I believe it will happen this year.

TENAGA is trading around PE 9, for a bull market and a blue chip, this valuation is definately undervalue already.

New Blog Layout

I was thinking to change my blog layout lately and feel that dark colour background will be the nice colour as investors need a calm mind to do their analysis. Since my blog title is blackspy fundamental, then I choose BLACK to be my black ground colour.

After property, construction, oil and gas theme play, what are the next?

After property, construction, oil and gas theme play, what are the next?

With the projects keep on giving out from government, those sector above need steel and cement to run their projects. So steel and cement will be the next baby..

Recently steel sector is hot with high volume, however some of the steel stock's price is not moving yet. They might be the next. I heard a news from my friend who work in construction sector, steel price is going to raise up after 1st of febuary. If so, then we might see a good quarter result from steel companies after May 2011.

New Hoong Fatt 7060

New Hoong Fatt's business is strongly related to malaysian passenger car market. It is the country's largest replacement parts maker by the market share in Malaysia.

The outlook of the business seems profitable as it has largest share market in Malaysia with the increase of cars in the country. However due to this reason, the growth of the business will also follow the number of cars in malaysia, which mean about 5%.

Its competitors in the market are APM Automative Holdings Bhd, Delloyd Ventures Bhd, Hirotako Holding Bhd.

Due to competition from the competitors, there is always a competition price war in the market as the buyer tend to buy for the cheapest products. So in order to survive in the price war, production cost  is crucial. Any volatile of steel and plastic resin raw-materials prices will effect the company's profit margin.

This year NHFatt will allocate around RM 30 million for capital expenditure, of which RM 10 million will be spent on production development and the balance on buying new machinery for its plastic manufacturing division.

The company currently is running at 80% capacity and there will be a expansion of production capacity more than 15% in end of the year 2011.

OSK research put a BUY call with a target price RM 2.85 based on a forward (year 2011) PE 6.0
MIMB investment Bank also put a BUY call with target price RM 3.00 based on FY 2011  PE 7.9

Coastal is coming??

Coastal is ship building company. It is category under oil & gas, recently all the oil & gas related company already move up. Will Coastal be the next? Earning is keep improving since year 2003 and even earn more in financial crisis at year 2009. This should be next gem~

PE only 4+, volume is coming.. I think market is paying attention on it now~

Just bought in 2,000 shares, total in hand is 6,000 shares

Beside that, also bought in some Century-wb as mother is trading at around PE5+

World is unstable now~

The world become unstable now. Crude oil price hit USD 98, coal supply is hitted by flood, food supply not enough, food price start to increase, US is printing money and many more..

The next coming month will full of challenge, I believe raw material company will rule the stock market in coming week..

Disposed Alam @ RM 1.16

Disposed Alam @ RM 1.16 today.

Reason?
KLCI keep on rising since the start of this year, not even take a correction in between. I am not very comfortable in this situation, plus the KLCI trading volume is very high yet the index do not move up. This show market is changing hand now. Previous buyer is disposing their shares.

So I decided to take out some cash out to wait for the coming correction.

My previous record: http://hongwei85.blogspot.com/2010/11/bought-alam-114.html

Why I bought MBMR??

Why I bought MBMR?
Look at its financial statement, 4 quarters give you EPS 56 cents
Cash on hand RM 178 million, Net cash RM 142 million.
Current share price RM 3.40, which gives PE 6
This price should consider undervalue due to its solid business and special car demand in Malaysia.

Managing Director Looi Kok Loon recently has bought in a lot of shares as well.
28/12/2010    40,000 shares
3/1/2011        62,000 shares
4/1/2011        48,600 shares
5/1/2011        79,400 shares
6/1/2011        20,000 shares

And of course recently high volume~

Bought MBMR at RM 3.40

Bought MBMR at RM 3.40

Just a putting some small money to play fun after seeing volume arise~

No other bidder for PLUS except EPF/UEM Group

So far only the joint venture of UEM Group Bhd and the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) has submitted the cash deposit of RM50 million in their joint offer to take over for RM23 billion offer or RM4.60 per share.


There is no other party join to the bidding.

Dispose Fajar-wa RM 0.795 @ 10 Jan 2011

Disposed Fajar-wa @ RM 0.795 with return around 51%


Previous bought record at here: http://hongwei85.blogspot.com/2010/08/fajar-bought-13august2010.html

Go buy Stocks, not Gold!!

About the shiny metal Warren once said:


"Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."

On the record in year 2009, there is 165,000,000 kg of gold have been mined in human history, which 50% go to jewelry, 40% go for investment, and the rest 10% go for industry.

Current gold price now is USD 44,453 per kg. If we times out, we will get the gold value of 7,335 billion.

In year 2010 October, Warren Buffett did say with the price at that time, you could buy all (not some) all of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobils, plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money.

Do human really need gold? Is it gold could help human to sustain life?
What human actually need is food, lands and energy. Without those things, human cannot survive. However without gold, human is manage to survive.

People like to use gold as a hedging tools to help them maintain their buying power. But do they ever think that gold is just a material, it creates no value at all. Does it pay dividend? Does it growing? None~

Invest in stocks is still the best way to maximise your return. Go and invest!

I am wondering someday, somehow at somewhere, someone around the world suddenly discover a huge gold mine. What happen will occur on the gold price? :p

Golden sentence of the year 2011 !!

Previous golden sentence:

It's look like me, sound like me, but it's not me.

Year 2011 golden sentence:

It's looks like suicide, sound like homicide, but it's neither both.

Closure of Sales for Public Bond Fund

There is one more fund closed today~ But this time the situation is a bit different.

This time the closed fund is bond fund, not equity fund. I believe there are some smart investors started to switching their fund from high risk fund to low risk fund after the recent bull run and historical high KLCI index performance.

Market will not always up. What will up, it will also come down~

Director is buying back 1 million RCECAP shares!

What a relief!!


RCECAP Director Chew Keng Yong is buying 1 million RCECAP shares (not 1 thousand shares, is 1 million shares!)  Do I need to say more on the loan issue news?

Below is the recent transaction done by him. Please check in bursa news.

Type of transaction	Date of change	No of securities	Price Transacted ($$)
Acquired	03/12/2010	380,000
Acquired	06/12/2010	420,000
Acquired	08/12/2010	200,000

The so called "analysts"

Analysts have always tended to call a stock "strong buy" when its price is high, and call for "sell" after the price has fallen.

Is it the way to make them rich in their life? or make them remain to work as "analysts" for the rest of their life??

Erm...

Performance of mutual fund

Fund Name                                   Return
Public Aggressive Growth Fund     19.91%
Public Equity Fund                         17.67%
Public Growth Fund                       18.25%
Public Index Fund                          10.04%
Public Select ALPHA-30 Fund      17.14%
PB Growth Fund                            14.09%

Above are the performance of Public Mutual Fund Performance during year 2010, KLCI index a return 19.06% at the same time.

Out of the 6 funds, only one fund slightly outperformed KLCI index. The others are underperformed.

This performance is not included the service charge and agent fees yet, so overall you are only making return around 5% to 15% from the fund if you are just invest within one year.

If your return is more than mutual fund, then congratulation to you. Otherwise, it is better for you to invest in mutual fund. And of course, you must be a long term investor, otherwise you are just putting your money into mutual fund agent's pocket.

Market outlook year 2011

Today is a first day trading of year 2011.

I purposely write down some note here to remind me what I think will happen in this year 2011. So I can always check back and remind me.

Bright Side: General election, oil and gas industry, steel industry.

Beware: QE2 effect, property bubble, George Soros's movement (he starts action already), hot money in China, HongKong and Taiwan

Stock record @ 1/1/2011

This year performance is not good as one of my stock counter, Rcecap is drag down the whole performance. However overall my capital is slightly over run KLCI index by 1.91% since March 2008.