Thursday, December 30, 2010
Bank of America (BAC)
Above are some data retrieved from annual report BAC, all the figure are in million except percentage.
As we can see the no. of outstanding shares grow from initial 3.3 billion (year 2000) to 7.6 billion (year 2009), which is more than 2 times.
As at record on the last quarter report, BAC number of outstanding shares stand at around slightly more 10 billion, this is more than 3 times of number of shares in year 2000.
Non-performing Assets still record at high level, latest quarter report shows Non-performing assets still registered at 3.74%.
Lets us do some assumption,
Assume earning is back to normal, lets say 16 million and assume number of outstanding share maintain at 10 billion, so we will get EPS USD 1.60
Assume US economy back to normal, then taking PE 15, which will give you target price USD 24
Current BAC share price is USD 13, so its share price still have 85% room to grow.
The point now is how long does it take for US economy back to normal? 3 years or 5 years?
85% in 5 years will give you annual compound rate 13%, or 22% in 3 years.
It should be a safe bet, as US economy sure will definitely go back to normal or even better. And do not forget stock performance normally will ahead half year to one year in front of economy performance.
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