Wednesday, November 30, 2011

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Monday, November 28, 2011

About Pavilion REIT

It has forecast a dividend yield of 6.51% in FY2012 ending Dec 31 based on its tentative retail price of 88 sen a unit. Its pro forma NAV upon listing is 94 sen per unit.

Market observers say that while Pavilion REIT’s dividend yield is decent, its two assets may not be enough to entice medium to long term investors.

So how does Pavilion REIT’s promised dividend yield stack up against those offered by some of the Malaysian REIT?

The three are Sunway REIT, Axis REIT and CpitaMalls. Sunway REIT’s gross dividend is at about 5.72% based on closing price of rm1.15. Axis REIT offers a dividend yield of about 6.79% (based on closing price of rm2.55). As for CMMT, it offers a gross dividend yield of 6.59% (based on closing price of rm1.36).

The above REITS reveal that Pavilion REIT’s projected yield of 6.51% in FY2012 may pale in comparison to other offerings in the region.

It aims to add more assets to its portfolio and wants to continue its “shopping spree” to acquire at least three more retail properties within the next three years (2011-2013), depending on the economic situation.

Pavilion REIT will be looking at potential injections [into the REIT] maybe in 2013. Potentially, the first acquisition will be Fahrenheit88, depending on the valuation and the yield.

It has right of first refusal (ROFR) to Fahrenheit88, an extension of Pavilion Kuala Lumpur and a new shopping mall to be built in USJ Subang Jaya. The acquisitions of the extension to Pavilion and the mall in Subang Jaya could take place in 2014 or 2015 once both projects are completed. Both developments are undertaken by the sponsor company, Urusharta Cemerlang Sdn Bhd.

Pavilion REIT’s portfolio currently consists of Pavilion Kuala Lumpur mall and the 20-storey office building Pavilion Tower, which have a total appraised value of about RM3.5 billion. As at June 30 2011, Pavilion KL was about 98.5% occupied while the occupancy rate at Pavilion Tower was 64.5%, including committed tenancies that had yet to commence.

It could either finance these additional property injections by going back to its shareholders or through bank borrowings, although the latter was the preferred option for now. The proceeds of close to RM700mil is being utilised to pay down the debt.

Upon listing, the REIT will have RM730.6 million debt, about 20.1% of its estimated total asset value, giving it headroom to gear up further with the debt ceiling set at 50% of total asset value. Under Securities Commission rulings it is allowed to gear up to 50% LTV ratio.

The current Pavilion shopping complex, which has been fully occupied for two years with a potential-retailer waiting list of 200 and rental yields of about RM16 per sq ft, will begin extension works by the first half of 2012. Pavilion REIT had “obtained all development approvals” for the extension.

This is an extension of about 300,000 sq ft of retail space, and will be built by Pavilion REIT's sponsors (original shareholders Urusharta Cemerlang Sdn Bhd) on the former carpark of Millenium Hotel. They (the sponsors) will also build an apartment on top of the new retail space.

Pavilion REIT will also develop another shopping mall in UEP Subang Jaya, following the compact mall concept with an apartment block on top of it. This compact mall which will be developed by Usurharta Cemerlang will have another brand name that will be managed by the Pavilion Group.

Pursuant to the initial public offering (IPO), 755 million units would be offered to Malaysian and foreign institutional investors and selected investors at the institutional price (other than cornerstone investors) which would be determined by way of book building.

A total 265 million units has been earmarked for allocation to six identified cornerstone investors at an offer price of 90 sen per unit or the institutional price, whichever is lower. The six cornerstone investors are Permodalan Nasional Bhd, Employees Provident Fund, Kumpulan Wang Persaraan, Great Eastern Life Assurance (M) Bhd, American International Assurance Bhd and HwangDBS Investment Management Bhd.

About 35 million units will be offered to the general public in Malaysia, eligible tenants of Pavilion Kuala Lumpur Mall and Pavilion Tower, directors of the manager and the eligible employees of the manager, Urusharta Cemerlang Sdn Bhd, Capital Flagship Sdn Bhd and Kuala Lumpur Pavilion Sdn Bhd at the indicative retail price of 88 sen per unit.

At an indicative retail price of 88 sen, the manager expected Pavilion REIT to provide a distribution yield of 6.41% and 6.51% for the one-month forecast period ending Dec 31, 2011 and the 12-month forecast period ending Dec 31, 2012 respectively.

The total appraised value of Pavilion REIT's initial property portfolio was about RM3.5bil. With the inclusion of Pavilion Kuala Lumpur Mall, which forms 96.4% of the total appraised value of Pavilion REIT's initial property portfolio, Pavilion REIT would become one of Malaysia 's largest listed REITs with the largest exposure to the retail sector of any listed Malaysian REIT by appraised value.

Upon listing, Malton Bhd’s chairman Datuk Lim Siew Choon and his wife, Datin Tan Kewi Yong, will collectively own 37.6% of Pavilion REIT whileQatar Holdings LLC, will hold 36.1%.

Monday, November 14, 2011

KLCI Chart from 1990 to 2010

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Maybank Credit Card 5% cash rebate plus 2.5% points award



We always thinking how to make money from share, but do you ever know we save some money by spending~

I am using Maybank 2 card now, which it offers me 7.5% rebate for spending. The 7.5% come from 5% cash rebate and 2.5% from treat point accumulate. But unfortunately, the 7.5% is only applicable on weekend spending, weekday only can rebate 2.5% from treat point accumulate.

However there is a limit of the cash rebate, that is maximum spending RM1,000 per month on weekend, which able to let you rebate cash RM 50.

Assuming you are able to spend RM1,000 per month on weekend, it actually save you RM75 (RM50 cash + RM 25 points) per month or RM900 per year. For a normal people like me, RM900 is a lot.

Below is some information listed in maybank2u.com
  • The benefits of two cards, Maybankard 2 American Express® Card and Maybankard 2 MasterCard, in one sign up, one service tax, and one statement. 
  • Enjoy a low Finance Charge of 8.88% p.a. on your outstanding retail balance, and save up to RM2300 a year¹. All you have to do is promptly settle your minimum payment of 5% or a minimum of RM25.
  • ¹Based on RM3,000 monthly spend with minimum repayment of 12 monthsClick here for calculation of savings. 
  • 5x TreatsPoints for every Ringgit spent on Maybankard 2 American Express Card and 1x TreatsPoint on Maybankard 2 MasterCard in Malaysia or anywhere else in the world. 
  • 5% Weekend cash back² when spend on Maybankard 2 American Express Card.
  • ²A cap of RM50 per customer (Principal Cardmember) per month 
  • Enjoy lowest finance charge of 8.88%³ per annum on your outstanding retail balance. All you need to do is promptly settle minimum payment, 5% of the outstanding balance or a minimum of RM25.
  • ³Maybank reserves the right to revise the Finance Charge as and when it deems necessary, with 21 days prior notice. 
  • Lifetime Fee Waiver with complimentary supplementary cards. 

Who can apply?

  • Malaysians and expatriates with a minimum annual income of RM30,000 
  • Principal cardholders: those between 21 to 65 years old 
  • Supplementary cardholders: at least 18 years old

    Thursday, November 3, 2011

    Tenaga prospect~

    Although the Bekok-C gasfield resumed operations sooner than expected in the second week of October 2011, the current 75 million standard cu ft per day (mmscfd) of gas it is supplying to the power sector will not be enough to bring TNB back into the black.

    TNB now received close to 1,050 mmscfd of gas, which is short of the 1,150 mmscfd it needs to avoid burning alternative fuels and distillates. In the meantime, TNB will still have to rely on alternative fuels, which are imported and five times more expensive, although in lesser quantities.

    Earnings visibility already weakened by slowing electricity demand growth will be somewhat uncertain possibly until Petronas' regasification plant in Malacca is ready in July 2012.

    The gas shortfall had forced TNB to incur an additional RM1.3bil in fuel costs for its third quarter 2011 due to 61 days of gas supply disruption, of which 51 days were due to unscheduled maintenance.

    The Bekok-C gasfield, which was damaged in a fire in December 2010, was supposed to be restored by Petronas in June 2011, but that was postponed to September and again to end-October 2011. Estimate that when the field is back in full working order, it will increase gas flow by 150 mmscfd, thereby substantially enhancing operational reliability.

    The taskforce comprising the Performance Management and Delivery Unit and Economic Planning Unit, that was set up to review the gas shortage, might not be able to do much since “the resolution depends solely on Petronas sorting out its gas facilities problem.”

    Meanwhile TNB had proposed to issue RM5bil in Islamic debt notes to finance the development of the 1,010 MW coal-fired power plant in Manjung, Perak. It would establish an Islamic securities programme of RM5bil in nominal value through an independent special-purpose company Manjung Island Energy Bhd.

    The proposed Islamic securities programme would have a tenure of 28 years from the date of first issue, which was expected to be in November. The proceeds will be used to purchase certain syhariah-compliant leasable assets from TNB Janamanjung Sdn Bhd.

    Near-Term Woes ..

    Tenaga CEO has been quoted that the gas shortfall has forced Tenaga to buy pricey oil and distillate to run its machines. However, the additional cost incurred cannot be passed on to the consumers because the government will not allow the pass through mechanism.

    Because of the gas shortfall, Tenaga is now forced to spend an additional rm400 million per month on fuel oil and distillate. If the situation continues, Tenaga will be forced to borrow to fund its operating expenses. In addition, Tenaga has had to spend more on purchasing coal on the spot market.

    The more pressing matter is the current state of Tenaga, which has been hit hard as a result of Petronas curtailing gas supplies in order to upgrade its facilities.

    The gas shortage problem has been ongoing since mid 2009, which was when Tenaga first mentioned. At the time, the most immediate effect was that Tenaga had to burn more coal, which was pricier than subsidized gas. This then hiked up its total fuel bill.

    In early 2011, however, the focus has shifted from simply pay more to having an assurance of supply in the light of the natural disasters. Massive flooding in certain parts of Australia disrupted coal mining operators, which had already been ramped up to meet growing demand from China and India .

    Then, the massive earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan in March 2011 resulted in a number of nuclear plants being shut down globally amid safety concerns, which meant that an increased reliance of gas and coal plants.

    This was when Tenaga really started to feel the pinch. Because of the prolonged gas curtailment, due to a fire at facility and scheduled plant maintenance, Petronas has been delivering around 25% less than the 1250 mmscfd promised to the power sector.

    As a result, Tenaga has been forced to buy more oil and distillate at market prices or five times more per KW to make up for the gas shortfall. Tenaga had to issue a profit warning, stating that it was now spending (Sept 2011) more than rm400 million a month on additional fuel.

    Aside from the higher price tag, using oil and distillate in gas turbines shortens the life of the machinery, a problem that both Tenaga and the IPPs share. What this means is that from having to service the machines on a yearly basis, for example, the maintenance cycle is now (Oct 2011) shorter, which means more shutdowns.

    The gas turbines are not meant to be run on other types of fuel, such as distillate. This shortens the lifespan of the machinery and means higher maintenance costs in the long run as the cycles get shorter.

    Ultimately, the prolonged gas supply issue resulted in Tenaga slipping into the red in 3QFY2011 ended May 31. Tenaga provider posted a net loss of rm441 million compared with a net profit of rm1.1 billion in previous corresponding period.

    Critics said that Tenaga will even making losses in 1QFY2012 if the gas shortage persists.

    And for the first time, Tenaga is looking to borrow to fund its operating expense. It has already gone to the bond markets to sell rm4.85 billion debt to fund the expansion of its Janamanjung coal fired plant.

    Things have come to a point where the government has set up a task force comprising Permandu and the EPU to look into the problem.

    In another two months (Dec 2011), the government is set to review the gas subsidy again as earlier announcement that the cost of gas will increased by rm3 every six months to catch up with market prices as part of a subsidy rationalization plan. But it should be warned that even if an increase in gas price is agreed upon, it does not automatically translate into an increase in tariff.

    The problem with gas supply may be alleviated in the longer term through higher gas prices, so eventually Petronas will have more incentive to supply more gas to the power sector. The next review is due in Dec 2011 but this is questionable as the election is speculated to be around the corner.



    Petronas has always bristled at supplying the bulk of its gas to the power sector, vocal about the potential revenue it could have made selling the gas at market prices. This, it does seem that if the power sector paid market prices, it would get the full amount it needs.

    Petronas can hardly be faulted for not wanting to supply gas at a subsidized price because the commodity can fetch higher prices on the open market. Petronas claims that because the domestic power sector is heavily dependent on gas, it has not been able to undertake regular maintenance works on its own facilities, which has resulted in a forced shutdown.

    On a positive note, Petronas has completed its mobile offshore platform unit bypass for the Bedok C gas field. This has led to the flow of 75 mmscfd of gas to the power sector since the second week of Oct 2011. The impact will be felt in 1QFY2012.

    The Longer Term Plan …

    Rumors have been rife that a corporate exercise at Tenaga will culminate in the national power provider being broken up into three units – generation, transmission and distribution. Although the Minister of Energy, Green Technology and Water has come out to say that there are no plans to break up Tenaga, there is a proposal to unbundle its accounts.

    However, the crux of the matter is whether separating Tenaga’s acounts will helpp avoid a recurrence of the problems of the power provider is facing now (Oct 2011).

    While the main cause of Tenaga’s troubles – the shortfall in the supply of gas from Petronas – is short term, it serves as reminder yet again of the underlying weakness of the industry as a whole.

    The most niggling being the lack of a fuel pass through mechanism. This is oft cited as being the main dampener when it comes to accessing the power’s supplier’s prospects.

    Separating the accounts would then reveal the true cost of generation. At the moment, Tenaga’s generation cost includes others aside from fuel, such as administration costs. If the actual cost of fuel were identified, then the fuel cost pass through tariff can be tied to that number as a base.

    This would in turn determine the subsidy needed for Tenaga to make up for the shortfall between the actual cost incurred and what is being charged. At the moment, Tenaga’s generation cost is lumped as part of its operating expenditure. It comes under the sub-segment of energy cost in its operating expenditure.

    Without full disclosure, it is difficult to tell if Tenaga’s generation plants are as efficient as those of the IPPs.

    At the moment, Tenaga is the sole offtaker of all the power generated in Malaysia .

    The proponents of segmenting the accounts say this will make the entire process of procuring and distributing power more transparent. While an increase in tariff will not be welcomes, it will help stem the constant criticism hat Tenaga is inefficient.

    Separating accounting will make the cost pass through formula more transparent to all parties. It can be used to show that there have been cross subsidies from the generation segment to the transmission and distribution segments.

    But it should be noted that this proposal to separate Tenaga’s accounts is not new. Tenaga states in 2008 that segmental reporting is not presented as rge group is principally engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution and sales of electricity and the provision of other related services, which are substantially within a single business sector.

    What is clear is that energy cost makes up the bulk of Tenaga’s opex – some 90% - but without additional data, it would be hard to estimate whether that proportionally translates into the same percentage of sales.

    It is for this reason that some argue against breaking up Tenaga. If there is one division within Tenaga that is in the red, it would prove difficult for that segments to gain funding. Inability to meet its capex needs would mean a break in the supply chain.

    While the restructuring of Tenaga will help form the base of industry reform, there is question that the industry itself is due for a change.

    Previously, re-negotiations with the IPPs were cited as one of the main stumbling blocks. However, now (Oct 2011) with the first generation power purchase agreements due to expire in three years from now, it might make the IPPs soften their stance somewhat.

    Sources say the government has made some progress with the first generation IPPs. The terms being offered are an extension of the PPAs but at a much lower cost per KW.

    The government is talking to Petronas and getting it to commit to a certain amount of gas for a certain number of years, but that is still preliminary.

    What could happen in the nearer term is the re-emergence of the undersea cable between Sarawak and the peninsula Malaysia as more plants come up in the former.

    Tuesday, November 1, 2011

    IPMuda

    It could see the emergence of new investors following a spate of share disposals by its substantial shareholders.

    Teh and IGB have collectively disposed 12.1% equity stake in off market trades. Any party which takes up the block of shares would emerge as the second largest shareholder after Tan Sri Abu Sahid.

    It is worth nothing that Abu Sahid has been accumulating shares. He nw holds a 30.6% take in IPMuda. So if he takes up the shares disposed by The and IGB, he would cross the threshold for making a MGO.

    Abu Said’s private vehicle Maju Holdings Sdn Bhd was thrust into the limelight when news of its plans to divest its unit highway concessionaire Maju Expressways Sdn Bhd.

    While IPMuda has been profitable in the last five financial years, it has seen ballooning receivables for at least the past four years. The amount is due from one of its directors.

    Un 2QFY2011, IPMuda’s receivables stood at rm220.02 million.

    In its latest filing, the company has resolved most of its outstanding matters with the sub contractor for the government project. As part of its efforts to resolve its related party receivables, the company said the director involved has proposed to settle part of its debt through a contra of two units of property.

    IPMuda has incurred operations cash flow deficit for two consecutive quarters. As at June 30, its cash stood at rm6.76 million. Its short term borrowings stood at rm78 million, commercial paper worth rm10 million and shareholders’ equity of rm143 million

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