PTPTN Payment Suspension

 

For those are affected on income by this MCO 3.0 

Now you can apply suspension of payment PTPTN for three (3) months

Application is started from 10th Jun 2021 to 31st Oct 2021

No documents are require to submit

You can log in to PTPTN website for more information or click shortcut link HERE to apply

Funding Societies P2P - 1 year review

 Since I have been invested in Funding Societies Malaysia about one (1) year, would like make a summary for it. 

So far so good, average I put in around 10k to invest on it, which so far generate around RM1,152.74 for me with zero default case. It has build up my confidence on it.

Of course, I practice it with very safely investment. Every investment, I will go through the details of the loan applicant background without blindly let the system auto choose for me. 

I will keep posted for it, maybe twice a year to keep track the record. If you have any other investment platform. Appreciate you could share with me and we learn and grow together.

If you are interested on Funding Societies and wish your capital to grow at the rate 8% to 10%. I would say you can consider on this platform. 

You may register it through my referral link HERE and both of us will enjoy RM30 credit back if you meets a simultaneous investment amount of RM1,000 and above within 60 days after the account registration. 

比特币观点

 比特币观点

1. 类似黄金，但是没有实用价值，金本位也已经一去不复返

2.不是法定货币，“国家”概念在有生之年应该不会消失

3.流动性还需要很长的时间

4.应该相信比特币，狗狗币呢？

5.将来会不会也出现还是猫猫币呢？

Good Bye Maybank 2 Gold Cards~

I used to use Maybank 2 Gold Cards for last few years. But after revise cashback policy. It is not as attractive as before.

I do believe Public Bank Quantum Visa & Master is the best cash rebate credit card at the moment. With the combine rebate up to RM60 per month. When you apply, Public bank will issue two cards at the same time, one is Mastercard, another one is Visa card.

For Mastercard, you can get 5% Cash Back on online transactions, capped at RM30 per monthly statement cycle.

For Visa card, you can get 5% Cash Back on contactless transactions with minimum RM30 per transaction, capped at RM30 per monthly statement cycle



With both combine cashback limit. It will help you save RM60 monthly.

So if you are frequent online purchase kaki, it is best for you to apply it.

However, there is a bad side for it. It doesn't give cashback on petrol transactions. So for me, I will still hold Maybank 2 cards to enjoy 5% petrol transaction, while apply Public Bank Quantum Visa & Master at the same time to enjoy another rebate.

Totally will save me maximum RM110 monthly or RM1,320 yearly. I believe it is a big saving for especially a low income group people like me.

Here is the link for more details if you are interested to apply.

Public Bank Quantum Visa & Master

Maybank 2 Gold Cards

What makes you think you know better than OldTown Management (Part 2)

First of all, congratulation to all OldTown investors who take action to readjust the shareholding of OldTown. As mentioned on earlier article, there is no people know better than the management. When management dispose shares, we should alert.

Previous good quarter earning, which was contributed by "Other gains and losses" and reduce of "Puchase of trading mechandise,...". When come to this quarter, the "extra earning" on previous quarter is being normalise. Hence, less earning is declared. As shown in below picture.

You may read earlier article here

For 12 months accumulate EPS is 13.46, which is translated to PE 23. We all know that there is a high demand and good prospect on China market, but the growth of China market seems like being drag down by local business. Hence the overall growth is only able to achieve a moderate growth rate around 8% to 10%. So the question is shall we pay such a high PE ratio to a modetate growth company?

Picture: Growth of China market is excellent, but drag down by other area. Hence, overall growth of the company is so so.

What makes you think you know better than OldTown Management

OldTown share price hit historical high recently to RM3.11

But Management was busying selling company treasury shares until zero position. So who is right?
What makes public feel that they know better than management? Which next quarter will have a good result?

Picture: It shows management is selling agreesive to reduce their treasury shares, while share price keep moving upward

On last quarter, 4QY16, good result is contributed by foreign gain and less activity on material purchase. Which impossible to repeat all the time. If exclude these two factors earning, then current PE is standing around 30! As shown in below picture.

If you have a position in OldTown. you shall take the chance the readjust your holding position.

What is the intrinsic value of TienWah?

What is the intrinsic value of TienWah in the next 10 years?

Current business

We follow current earning power, which earned RM26 million per year. So with the latest renewal 3 years contract, Tienwah will earn RM78 million for next 3 years, with assumption earning remain the same throughout the years.

If it is able to continue to secure the contract from BAT after next 3 years and remain stable for another 7 years. Then total earning will be RM260 million.

Property business

Sale of PJ land with value RM63.75 million. This cash mostly will use for future developement of the land.

Propose joint venture with Singapore developer with initial investment cost RM500 million, whereby cash injection RM200 million, and bank loan RM300 million. 

Assume profit margin for this project is 17%, then Tienwah will earn RM42.5 million, after profit sharing consideration.

Tienwah further propose to listing its new property company once it hit 25% of group's net profit or asset. 

Once its new property company go listing, then sales of new shares will be recorded as Tienwah earning. Since it is too many uncertainty on this, so we ignore this bonus earning.

Indonesia printing business

Acquired from BAT Indonesia with purchase cost RM96.9 million and come with 6 years contract.

Historical record showed Tienwah ROIC stand around 15%, which mean it takes 6.7 years to double up earning. The return years is almost same with the contract years, which is 6 years. So we can assume Tienwah is based on this return to calculate out the purchase price. If it is correct, then this new business will generate RM14.5 million per year,

With the 6 years contact, Tienwah is able to earn RM87 million.

If Tienwah manage to get secure renewal contract from BAT after the 6 years, then it can make RM145 million in 10 years. 

Middle east, Dubai business

Total investment cost is RM21 million. 

As a business man, you will not simply to go and acquire a factory without secure any business. Hence it is believable Tienwah is done their research and secure some contract there.

Assume ROIC is 15% as well, then this new business will generate RM3.15 million earning per year.

So in 10 years time, total earning will be RM31.5 million

Summary

Current share price RM1.82 x 144 million shares, the market capital is around RM260 million.

In next 10 years time, Tienwah will be able to generate RM542.75 million (RM260 million + RM63.75 + RM42.5 million + RM145 million + RM31.5 million)

From above calculation, it shows that Tienwah is trading more than 50% below it's 10 years total earning, which create a good safety margin.

Tienwah price is giving an attractive margin of safety with 50% discount, yet it provides a high growth prospect to tap into other region and property industry. Besides that, Tienwah also provide a 50% dividend policy, which will translate to nearly 10% dividend yield for next 10 years. 

Note: I have assumed inflation and business volume growth will be equal, so this factor is taken out from calculation.

                                        

Tienwah latest acquiry

With the recently annoucement from Tienwah, which has been awarded the tender to acquire BAT Indonesia printing business with amounting RM96.9 million and with a contract of 6 years to supply printing service to BAT Indonesia.

What does it tell you anything from this info?

General Info

BAT Indonesia market value around RM750 million ~ RM800 milliom

TienWah Malaysia market value around RM200 million

BAT Indonesia has been loss making for past 3 years, amounting RM500 million each year

BAT Indonesia has issued private placement to raise up RM4.515 billion, at which RM3.87 billion (around 86% of the private placement) was used to pay outstanding default loan. The loan was called default and been settled up fully on Jun year 2016.

The followings are my assumption:-

1. BAT Indonesia is loss making, so it requires money to support its business cash flow. Hence propose to sell its subsidiary printing business.

2. Tienwah beg for renewal of contract of printing. Hence it is willing or force  to help BAT Indonesia in order to secure the contract. By the way, it is win-win situation. Both get what they want. BAT Indonesia get the cash flow. Tienwah get the opportunity to tap into Indonesia's market.

3. Tienwah definately will secure the renewal of 3 years contract. As it should be a part of agreement for Tienwah to buy BAT Indonesia printing business.

Tienwah's market value is only RM200 million, but it invest RM96.9 million into new market. So do you see the number? 

Next I will write out on Tienwah's intrinsic value. Stay tune.

Trump affect

Following are some Trump's proposals and my point of views: -

Proposal: Decreased American Investment in M'sia due to reduce US corporate tax.
Answer: By reducing US corporate tax, will not being back their manufacturing. It finds no sense to make a product yourself if you can buy it cheap on somewhere. The economy of scale is not there and it will burden more US people living cost. You will just buy a product if there is few cent cheaper.

Proposal: Lead to Capital flight to the US from M'sia.
Answer: If it really happen, it makes more difficult for Trump to create more jobs opportunity in US, as RM is weakening, so it is more worth to invest in Malaysia than US.

Proposal: TPPA will be scrapped off.
Answer: This yet to happen, so any affect?

Proposal: Impose 35% tax higher on goods from China and Mexico.
Answer: It will cause recession to China and Mexico, as well as US itself. So he won't do it.

Everything he talked in the election regarding policy and economy are required to go through the House and the Senate. It won't be so easy to make it happen.

Benefit of Brexit

The benefit of BREXIT to Malaysian! Digestive biscuit will become cheaper! :)

Karex Berhad: SELL

Karex Berhad
Research

General information
27 years experience in this industry
World's largest manufacturer
Global condom market year 2015 = RM27 billion
Capacity increase from 4 billion to 5 billion
Net cash position
Private placement RM158 million on March 2015

Positive
Target to increase capacity to 7 billion in 2017 (40% increase of capacity from current production)

Finance Background
Gross profit margin = 33% to 39%
Distribution expenses = 5.0% (year 2014) to 5.5% (year 2016) - getting worse
Administrative expenses from 4.5% (year 2014) to 11.0% (year 2016) - getting very worse
Net profit, exclude currency gain/loss and others gain/loss will be normalised at around 16%

Annually revenue for year 2016 (estimation) will be RM340 million

Assume net profit margin 16%, exclude any extra gain/loss, then profit shall be RM54.4 million

Outstanding shares = around 1 billion

EPS = 54.4/1000 = 5.44 cents

Assume 40% increase in profit (in line with increment with capacity production)

EPS @ 2017 = 5.44 cents x 1.4
= 7.62 cents

Give high PE ratio 20 for this industry, target price is RM1.52

Current share price RM2.26, which is over price.

If consider margin of safety, you shall get in at PE = 15, which give you the entry price of RM1.14 (provided this company still in high grow path)

Note* Even Warren Buffett bought Coca-Cola Company when it is trading at around PE 15. So do you think current price have any buffer zone for margin of safety? (which is twice the price of PE15). You judge it yourself. Buy or sell at your own risk.

i3investor please do not simply copy and paste. Please do respect intellectual property right!

VS Industry Berhad: SELL

VS Industry Berhad: SELL

Research

General

• Leading integrated Electronics Manaufacturing Services (EMS) provider
• World's top 50 EMS from 2007 to 2014 (source: Annual Report 2015)
• Director Salary, RM20 million annually (50% of operating expenses)
• Dividend policy minimum 40%
• Outstand shares 1,155 million shares
• Warrants 290.8 million shares (EPS will be diluted 25% once warrants convert to mother share)

Positive

1. Major customers, like customer Keurig and Dyson are expected to remain strong, with sale percentage 38% and 25% respectively.
2. Customer Keurig to grow CAGR 29% from FY15-18 to 4.6 million units
3. Customer Dyson sales for FY16 are expected to grow 50% yoy to RM639 million.
4. Dividend policy minimum 40%
5. Management is confidence on future growth.

Negative

1. Major revenue depends on two (2) customers (63% of total revenue)
2. Director's salary too high (50% of operating expenses)
3. Minimum wage implementation on July 2016 from RM900 to RM1000 (11% increase), which shall be minimum impact on profit.
4. 2QFY (January) and 3QFY (April) performances are typically its weakest quarters due to seasonal demand.
5. Earning sensitivity 1.5% to 2.0% reduction for every 1% ringgit fall. 

Share price                      = RM1.20

Earning per Share          =RM0.144

Price to Earning ratio    = 8.3 (based on current outstanding shares) or 10.4 (diluted shares)

Dividend Yield                = 4.8%

My personal view

1. Since there next two quarters are traditionally weakest quarters, hence there is no hurry to buy in. 
2. Next quarter result is expected to be weaker, compare to current quarter.
3. Consistence future growth is a question mark. Risk management is too low.
4. Profit Margin increase almost 100% from last year, which is unlikely to maintain. If profit margin go back to normal rate, there will be 50% drop on profit, hence as well as share price.
5. Management is not taking care shareholder's interest, as taking too high salary and implement ESOS too frequent.
6. Price is at high side based on diluted shares. It might be higher due to ESOS on every year.

Target price

Buy below RM0.70 for better safety margin.

HUPSENG 5024 SELL @ 10/03/2016

HUPSENG 5024 SELL @ 10/03/2016

HupSeng is it worth to hold now?

Recent result achieve highest profit in history and bring the share price to historical high as well. But is it substainable? 

You may need to read out the interview article below from HupSeng Management

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2015/12/05/charting-hup-sengs-growth/?style=biz

According to management, recent better result is due to lower commodity price and weaker Ringgit Malaysia, which help to registered higher profit margin at average 18%.

However if all these two external factor back to normal and expecting by management. The profit margin shall be back to average 13%., which is 27.8% downward from current earning.

The 13% profit margin is based on the external factor, CPO price at RM2800 per ton and RM3.80/USD, which is highly possible.

• Current share price, RM1.30
• PE = 19, which is high
• DY = 5.7%, which is above average but it is not committed by management and is not substainable, as dividend payout is higher than earning.

Future prospect 

• New product launching, "Naturelle" brand biscuit. I have tasted it and it is not my cup of tea.
• Cash reservation at 4Q15 = RM120 million
• New production line will be implemented and will cost around RM26 million
• Purchased new factory and land at cost RM17.5 million on March 2016.

My personal view

1. Share price now is high, based on PE ratio
2. Management informed that the profit will be back to normal if commodity price and currency back to normal, which i think is highly possible. 
3. There will be a risk of poorer result for next few quarters.
4. Constant dividend payout is a BIG question mark, as management didn't commit any dividend policy.
5. No timeline for new production line and new factory.
6. Management is not agreesive to develope new product.
7. Saturated "Cream-Cracker" market with annual growth 2% to 4% only.

Target Price 

• Buy at RM0.50, without consider dividend yield or,
• Buy at RM0.97, if dividend is able to maintain, which can give a DY at 7% (BEWARE! It is not achievable in long term)

Will Jaya Tiasa register a growth for coming quarter?

Average Log production of 4Q15 is slightly higher than 3Q15
Average FFB, Palm oil production of 4Q15 is much lower than 3Q15

So would Jaya Tiasa register a growth for 4Q15? What do you think? ^v^

NO surpirse for SCH Group for next quarter

There should a no surprise for SCH Group in next quarter.

According to their quarterly report, 3Q15Y statement,

"Domestically, demand is expected to lose some momentum as reflected in big-ticket items after implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) in April.

In addition, Bank Negara in a statement released recently has also cited a more cautious tone on Malaysia's ecenomy with the continued uncertainties surrounding the global economy.

Nevertheless, looking forward, given the ongoing implementation of projects under the 11th Malaysian Plan with an average annual development expenditure of about RM52 billion, it is anticipated that the continued developement expenditure will provide a buffer from possible economic slowdown if external remains unfavourable."

It is believe that the revenue and profit will remain for the next quarter.

3Q15 EPS = RM0.055
Current share price RM0.22 @ 4th January 2016
Current PE 10.6

HHGroup Quarter Report Analysis 30.09.2015 (WARNING!!)

HHG Quarter Report Analysis 30.09.2015 (WARNING!!)

Part 1

Part 2

Looking for the latest quarter, Sept 2015. The quarter revenue was dropped from RM26 million to RM18 million, which is a huge drop if compare to last past few quarters.

Besides this, please be remind that this quarter have a one off gain of RM2.4 million. If without this profit, the company is only making merely RM0.4 million, which mean there is huge 90% drop in profit in this quarter.

The management mentioned in their lastest quarter report that this is due to uncertainty of China's operation environment and mitigate the credit risk exposure by lowering the sales. This statement can be supported by increasing of "Trade and Receivables" in the above picture (Part 2).

This will put HHG in a risk that money is not able to collect back and turn into bad debt, which subsequently affect the cash flow of the company.

Now we look at the debt and cash level of the money. 

Short Terms Borrowing RM16 million

Long Terms Borrowing RM10 million

Cash on Hand RM8 million

Financial Cost around RM 1.6 million per year.

Base on current share price RM0.62, which translate to PE 13 to PE14

The PE looks quiet high for a small company like this. It is very risky to buy this stock at the moment as the chance of lost of money greater than making money.

Lastly, the ROE of this company is less than 5%.

Buy at your own risk!

What's Next?

• Mudajaya bags RM220.0m EPCC job for Rapid Ewein to sign S&P agreement on Dec 28
• Ewein to sign S&P agreement on Dec 28
• FCW sees lower earnings in FY16
• LTKM disposes land in Klang for RM26.0m
• Survey finds German consumer confidence rising
• No decision made on subsidy rationalisation for other products
• Natural gas prices to go up, residential users spared
• Malaysia’s reserves rise to three-month high as ringgit rebounds
• Special parliamentary session to decide on TPPA participation end-January 2016
• Japan govt: stimulus to add 0.6% point to GDP over next 3 yrs
• Japan government targets growth, fiscal reform in record budget spending plan
• S. Korea central bank says households' fiscal health has worsened
• India deficit to rise as states take on power companies' debt
• US economy grew at 2% rate over summer; a pickup is seen
• US existing home sales tank in November

Little Infor - Bonia

It is an investment holding company, which engages in the market retail and distribution of leatherwear footwear men's apparel and accessories.

It operates through the following segments: Retailing, Manufacturing, and Investment & Property Development.

The Retailing segment designs, promotes and markets apparels footwear accessories and leather goods. The Manufacturing segment engages in the manufacture and market of leather goods. The Investment & Property Development segment consists of investment holding and rental and development of commercial properties.

Other than expanding its own in house brands, the group has also been aggressively expanding its co owned brand … Braun Buffel.

In Sept 2015 Bonia’s subsidiaries BB Global Holdings Pte Ltd (BBGH) acquired intellectual property rights from Braum GmbH & Co KG (BBKG) in a deal worth EUR1.88 million (equivalent to RM9.21 million)

The clothing manufacturer reported a net profit of RM5.41 million or 0.67 sen a share for the fourth quarter financial year ended June 30, 2015 (4QFY15), a 39.3% drop from RM8.92 million or 1.11 sen a share a year ago.

Revenue for the period also dipped slightly to RM148.3 million, from RM165.86 million in 4QFY14.

To recap it had proposed one for one bonus issue and two for one share split went ex on July 21 2014. Both exercises will increase its outstanding number of shares.

Key risks for Bonia will be a regional slowdown in consumer spending and stiffer than expected competition.

As at 2014 institutional shareholdings in Bonia stand at 40% compared with an estimated 15% to 20%. For instance, Milingtonia Ltd holds a 11.2% stake in the group. Milingtonia is said to be linked with Creador Group, a long-term private equity firm. Albizia Capital Pte Ltd holds a 7.96% stake in the company.

The institutional shareholdings in Bonia are also more diverse compared with several years ago, considering that Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB) once held a dominant 32.99% stake in the retail group in June 2011. PNB has ceased to be a shareholder of Bonia, having divested its stake gradually to other institutional funds including Creador.

The group is open to strategic partnerships that can propel it further, beyond...Southeast Asia, such as China or even the Middle East eventually.

The Chiang family, through Bonia Holdings Sdn Bhd, Freeway Team Sdn Bhd, and family members, collectively own half of the group. Should the group find a suitable partner, the family may have to divest part of its stake.

Just Read ... Minho (Revaluation Play, Beneficiary From Strong USD)

It is established dated back to before the year 1977, when it started of as Syarikat Minho Kilning Sdn Bhd, providing klin drying services. To date (Aug 2015), the company had grown up into a fully integrated timber player, providing services such as ...

- Klin Drying and Chemical Preservative treatment;
- Manufacturing, exporting and dealing in moulded timber and it's related product;
- Export of processed timber products;
- Manufacturing and distribution of industrial paper bags;
- Trading in log supply and it's related products;
- Log harvesting;
- Property development and building construction;
- Manufacturing and dealing in furniture components and it's related product;
- Land leasing

However, with all the diversified services and product, Minho still derived it's major revenue from the timber trading and manufacturing of processed timber goods.

With the current (Aug 2015) local market outlook on massive completion of housing projects that will be handling over in 2015 to 2017, and the international market outlook with a stronger USD and the on going European Stimulus program, where can it leads to for Minho from Aug 2015?

While 2014 had been a challenging year, however, Minho still managed to scrap through the year with a total revenue of RM 238 million.

Minho business which deal in timber is very cyclical in nature. Various market factor and changing weather can easily put a blow into the financial result. However, Minho's experience in the timber sector definitely did pay out when the group grab hold of the opportunity in diversifying into land banking and subsequently into small property development.

Till date (Aug 2015), Minho is greatly boosted with a strong underlying asset of freehold land. Most of it's land is still clinging on the valuation dated back to 2009 and 2010. Minho currently (Aug 2015) is sitting on NTA of RM 2.93. However, there are still a good number of revaluation reserved in their belt of freehold land in prime commercial area of Klang, which is near to Port Klang.

Minho had been also paring down it's debt level gradually.

While most of the revenue came from the local market, revenue from the US is ranked no.2 while UK no.3. The US market will continue to remain stable, while Minho can start to tap into the European market with the current (Aug 2015) stimulus program.

A stronger USD against the MYR will also translate to a better forex gain for the group. A stronger contribution from the European market will be able to see Minho ending in a stronger bottom line in 2015.

Minho is an interesting company to be look out upon, largely due to it's strong underlying assets, with NTA bearing approx RM 3.00.

 

Just 'READ' - Pensonic (Revaluation Play) !!!

Its NTA currently (Sept 2015) stood at rm0.85. However the NTA is said to be understated due to its accounting policy to carry properties at cost model instead of revaluation model.

The company adopted "cost less depreciation model" to value its land and building. This has reflected an unfairly low valuation of the assets that it presently (Sept 2015) has. For example, the property that it isowning in Section 51A Petaling Jaya is carried at rm200 per square feet while the market value is around rm750-850 psf. Valuing it even on a conservative amount of rm600 psf, this would translate it into a gain of RM18million and if the high side of RM800 is taken, then the gain would reach RM25million - on this one property alone.

If were to revalue all … a rm25million of gain is translating into about NTA of RM0.20 per share. In the event if all properties are revalued to the current (Sept 2015) market value, we can see a substantial increase in its NTA and of course the present stock price (26 Sept 2015) is traded at discount below the more realistic NTA.

It returns to the black with a net profit of RM12.6million for the fourth quarter ended May 31,2015 (4QFY15), compared with a net loss of RM1.64million a year earlier, on higher export sales and property disposal gains.

Revenue increased to RM92.9million from RM89.65million.The increase in revenue was mainly contributed by the export market, as its local business was facing a slight drop in revenue, due to the Goods and Services Tax (GST) implementation.

Furthermore, the group has posted a profit before tax of RM12.9million, [as] compared to loss before tax of RM2.7million in the corresponding periodlast year. This gain were mainly came from recognition of financial gain on disposal of property RM8.4million.

For the full year, Pensonic registered higher net profit of RM17.58million, from RM2.87million a year earlier. Revenue increased to RM388.37million from RM373.73million.

Looking ahead, Pensonic anticipated intense competition, but will continue to explore new markets and product innovation.

At rm0.59 it is trading at a 12 month trailing PER of 4.42 times.